Uncertainty About Uncertainty

I recently gave a conference presentation on “Risk Control in the Blended Learning Environment”. My research showed that online teaching and learning were generally viewed as risky in many ways, including the following: possible student cheating; absence of face-to-face cues; retention issues (MOOCs currently serve as extreme examples); technical hurdles; reliance on doubtful or contradictory web sources; and lack of recognition. The problem, however, is that these risks have not been quantified properly, if at all. There is uncertainty about uncertainty. I recommended blended learning as a compromise between the perceived risks of online learning and the assumed safety of the traditional teaching/ learning environment. Yet even when risks are objectively quantified, as in the health field, there are individual and cultural differences in risk perception and uncertainty avoidance. There are also complications concerning definitions; for example, definitions of cheating may vary, and what may be an irrelevant source in one sense may be highly relevant in another.    

By chance this week I came across a Macmillan blog post by Liz Potter on different ways of expressing uncertainty in English (“Life Skills Tip of the Week: Ways of Expressing Uncertainty”). What a coincidence, I thought. It was only logical to connect this to my idea of uncertainty. Here are some ways of indicating uncertainty in English, as expressed by Potter, each with a slightly different pragmatic application. If you are uncertain about the difference between them, check the above site.

• perhaps/ maybe
• possibly/ probably
• apparently
• as far as I know
• to the best of my knowledge/ recollection/ belief
• not to my knowledge 
• I imagine/ suppose  

I hope all this makes sense - or perhaps not!